Did You Know That The First Climate Change Model Was Created In 1896?

In the scientific world, the first climate model was created by Swedish scientist Svante August Arrhenius (1859-1927) in 1896.

Arrhenius was a physicist. However, his work also focused on chemistry. Arrhenius' work was grouped under three headings throughout his scientific career: physical chemistry, cosmic physics, and immunochemistry.

Arrhenius' work on climate modeling falls within the scope of cosmic physics. In 1903, he received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry. The award was given for his work in physical chemistry.

Arrhenius worked on cosmic physics at Stockholms Högskola between 1895 and 1900. Stockholms Högskola is today Stockholm University . In 1891, Arrhenius founded the Stockholm Physical Society with a group of scientists to work on geology, meteorology and astronomy.

In his studies at the Stockholm Physical Society, Arrhenius focused on explaining the physical relationships between seas and oceans, the atmosphere and land masses. Does the average temperature of the Earth's surface change under the influence of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere? Isn't the question aimed at understanding the effect of the gases known today as greenhouse gases on global warming? Arrhenius sought to find an answer to this question.

The main purpose of the studies conducted at the Stockholm Physical Society is to understand why the Earth entered an ice age. The studies progress in such a way that it is found how the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with water vapor, affects the surface temperature of the Earth. Accordingly, it is revealed that increases and decreases in the amount of carbon dioxide (carbonic acid) in the atmosphere also increase or decrease the temperature level of the Earth.

Some data emerged from the studies that led Arrhenius to his first climate modeling. If the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were to increase by 2.5 to 3 times the data at the time the studies were conducted, the Arctic Ocean (North Pole Region) would warm by 8-90C. On the other hand, for an ice age to occur between the 40th and 50th parallels of the Earth, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would have to fall to levels that would be 55-62% of the current levels at the time the studies were conducted. This means a cooling of 4-50C in the Earth's crust.

Arrhenius published his work with the title “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground” in “The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science” in 1896. Thus, the first climate modeling in the history of science takes its place on the stage of science.

In the work published in 1896, there is no emphasis on the release of fossil-based fuels into the atmosphere. However, the effects of the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere through the use of fossil-based fuels on the average temperature of the earth's crust are indirectly understood in the light of today's knowledge.

Arrhenius, also known as the father of climate modeling, published a work called “Worlds in the Making” in 1908. The word fossil can be found especially between pages 53 and 63 of this work. Again, the work includes the effect of industrial developments on the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere on pages 54 and 63.

Today, the greenhouse gases that humanity is releasing into the atmosphere are far beyond what Arrhenius thought. However, Arrhenius was the first to come up with a climate model, so humanity was aware of climate change in 1896.

Today, there are scientists who write that it is impossible for the average temperature increase of the world to remain limited to 1.50C compared to before the industrial revolutions. We are reading and watching what is happening now that it has reached 1.20C.

There are also predictions that if current practices continue to be inadequate to prevent the climate crisis, there could be an increase of 2.70C in average temperature by the end of the 21st century.

The work inspired by Arrhenius continued in the following decades.

In 1938, British engineer and amateur meteorologist Guy Stewart Callender wrote an article titled “The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature.” The article begins with a data on the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by fuel use.

The newspaper article below is from August 14, 1912. The newspaper is a New Zealand newspaper called the Rodney and Otamatea Times, Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette. It explains that carbon dioxide emissions are increasing temperatures.

Source: https://archive.nytimes.com/dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/10/21/coals-link-to-global-warming-explained-in-1912/?smid=nytcore-android-share

In 1956, Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass expressed the vulnerability of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere to warming. He explained that industrialization would increase the average temperature of the earth by 10C every century. He warned government officials in the USA and explained that warming would cause very important problems in the future. The study was the subject of a report in The New York Times, a copy of which is provided below.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/1956/10/28/archives/science-in-review-warmer-climate-on-the-earth-may-be-due-to-more.html?searchResultPosition=1

The climate crisis is an economic phenomenon. The world has been going through different phases in its 4.5 billion year history due to natural developments. It warms up, cools down, enters and exits an ice age. Life can be impossible or extremely possible. However, the phase we are in today is due to the economic order established by humans. Scientists suggest that this phase caused by humans should be called the Anthropocene Age .

I have been writing about climate for a while now. My aim is to explain that the subject is not related to today in any way. For this reason, I give special place to climate change determinations made in history . In this article, I wanted to give place to the first climate modeling and therefore Svante August Arrhenius.

Interestingly, electric vehicles, one of the efforts to prevent the climate crisis, were not invented today. Cars were already electric and then they started using fossil-based fuels. Why? Let this be the subject of another article.

None of the studies conducted in the past are unknown. In order to explain this, I am including newspaper reports from the relevant periods. The news copied below is from The New York Times. Date: October 2, 1927. The news of Arrhenius' death is given. In other words, everyone is informed and aware of everything.

Source: https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1927/10/03/104225580.html?pageNumber=23

Why did humans establish and still maintain an economic order that would put their own existence at risk? Could it be because, as Heidegger explains, “being” was not defined when philosophy emerged?