The Oil Industry Was Aware of the Devastating Impacts of Climate Change Almost 70 Years Ago

When did humanity first learn about the concept of climate change? We cannot know this with a precise determination. However, I have explained with evidence in some of my previous articles that warnings about climate change date back to the early 1900s through my studies.

In 1911, attention is drawn to the warming in New York. In 1947, it is described that the ice in the Arctic is melting. In 1972, The Limits to Growth is written. Behind the warnings is a nearly 200-year story of accelerating growth, income growth, and population growth.

In 1965, there was a report sent to the US President at the time, Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson expressed his gratitude for this report and published a message . The report mentioned the imposition of certain taxes on those who pollute the atmosphere. In 1969, a warning was also given to Richard Nixon. It was stated that the amount of carbon in the atmosphere would increase by 25% by the year 2000.

So, how long have fossil fuel producers, the leading actors in climate change, known about the effects of climate change? We don't know exactly. However, we understand from written evidence that they were aware of possible developments in the late 1950s.

In 1968, the American Petroleum Institute, a trade organization of which major energy companies were members , commissioned a study by the Stanford Research Institute, which was affiliated with Stanford University at the time. The report was prepared specifically for the American Petroleum Institute in 1969 and was not published in periodical journals as any academic article is published.

The report, prepared for the American Petroleum Institute, was particularly noted by Carroll Muffett, director of the Center for International Environmental Law (IEL) . In 2016, IEL published sections of the report. In addition, IEL prepared a report called Smoke and Fumes based on the 1969 report, detailing when and how the oil industry became aware of climate change. The Smokes and Fumes report is frequently used in lawsuits filed against companies producing fossil-based energy.

Among all fossil-based energy producing companies, Exxon stands out. Exxon pinpointed the potential effects of climate change with a study in the 1970s . The data that has emerged to date is extremely consistent with the results of scientific studies commissioned by Exxon. However, the same company funds those who deny climate change and deny the findings of the studies it commissioned. The name of the report commissioned by Exxon is “Exxon: The Road Not Taken.”

The American Petroleum Institute is establishing a committee called Smoke and Fumes to direct public perception of climate change in its favor. The aim of this committee is to protect the economic interests of the sector by explaining and making others understand that climate change is not happening through various means.

There is a lot of scientific evidence from the past about climate change. Los Angeles has been experiencing significant air pollution since the 1950s. A study is being done by Arie Haagen-Smit of the California Institute of Technology . He studies microscopic chemicals in the air and determines that the air pollution is caused by fossil fuels. The study was commissioned by the City of Los Angeles.

2023 is set to be a year of record melting of polar ice caps in particular. The red curve in the graph below shows how much melting in Antarctica will occur in 2023 compared to the average between 1991-2020.

Source: https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1674736887322533888?s=20

The graph below shows the extent of glacial melt in Greenland. The blue curve shows the average melt by month between 1981 and 2010. The red curve shows the extent of melt in 2023.

Source: https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1674442648923373569?s=20

The findings regarding climate change are not new. The data I could find goes back to 1911. Scientific findings and predictions of those who produce fossil-based energy date back almost 70 years.

The data is there. The science is there. Only those who fund this work can deny such clear results. As in the case of Exxon and the American Petroleum Institute.