Turkey Under Siege

To better understand the political crisis that Turkey has fallen into today, one must go back to 2015.

In June 2015, the AKP (Justice and Development Party) faced the necessity of forming a coalition government for the first time since coming to power in 2002. Following the June 2015 elections, Turkey suddenly found itself confronted with terrorism, and headed back to the ballot box in November 2015.

The events of July 15, 2016, were the result of a power struggle between two factions vying for control of the state. In the conflict between the Gülenist movement (FETÖ) and the AKP, even the Turkish Grand National Assembly was bombed. In an effort to demonstrate that it had public support, the AKP called on the people to take to the streets for weeks. The party successfully convinced its base that these events constituted a "struggle for democracy," mobilizing large crowds. However, the country’s democratic and secular segments did not take part in this conflict; they merely observed the developments from the sidelines.

In 2018, the Brunson crisis had triggered a currency crisis. The Turkish economy entered a new phase of instability, one that would continue to escalate in the coming years. However, the most significant political milestone after 2015 occurred in 2019.

According to the results of the local elections held in March 2019, Ekrem İmamoğlu received 4,171,118 votes in Istanbul. His AKP opponent, on the other hand, lost the Istanbul election with 4,149,656 votes. However, according to the president, losing Istanbul meant losing Turkey.

Dissatisfied with the outcome of the March 2019 Istanbul election, the president had the elections repeated in June 2019. Three months later, Ekrem İmamoğlu won the election by a much larger margin compared to March. This time, he secured 4,742,082 votes, while his AKP rival's votes dropped to 3,936,068. Facing such a widened gap, the AKP had no choice but to retreat and concede defeat.

A trial run for election annulment had been conducted in 2015, and a similar strategy was applied again in 2019. In 2015, Turkey was overwhelmed by terrorism. In 2019, in a peaceful environment, the public stood by the one who was wronged—just as it had stood by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 2002.

Over time, Ekrem İmamoğlu began to establish himself as an increasingly powerful political figure in Turkish politics. The opposition bloc (Nation Alliance) suffered a heavy defeat in the general elections of May 2023. However, just nine months later, it was the AKP that suffered a crushing defeat in the local elections. Such a dramatic shift in public preference within such a short period was astonishing.

In the local elections of March 2024, Ekrem İmamoğlu emerged victorious once again, solidifying his success from the 2019 municipal elections, which had been repeated.

"Losing Istanbul meant losing Turkey." While this sentiment fueled panic within the ruling party, the growing public perception that Ekrem İmamoğlu could be Turkey’s future president was strengthened by the increasing support he received.

For the AKP, which faced the risk of losing power in both 2015 and 2019, this was a period of growing pressure and possibly an approach toward an end. In the meantime, a referendum was held in 2017 to decide whether Turkey would transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential system, and during this vote, even unstamped ballots were deemed valid.

The AKP was determined to stay in power at any cost. Any means necessary to avoid losing power were considered acceptable.

Today, Turkey is gripped by deep concerns. These concerns are not limited to the opposition; even some segments within the ruling party share this unease. Turkish populace has observed and identified past injustices and unfair practices. The Turks have always tended to side with those who are wronged.

Turkey’s democracy has never reached a fully developed level. However, within the country’s cultural framework, there exists a shared sense of justice, and historically, the electorate has aleays stood by those who have been placed in a position of victimization in politics.

The AKP’s increasingly anti-democratic stance has its roots in statements made in the 1990s. The events of today were, in a way, foretold nearly 30 years ago. It was said that when the time came, the party would step off the democracy tram. Democracy was not an end in itself, but merely a tool for building an Islamic civilization. Moreover, the current president had already stated back in the 1990s that he was a supporter of Sharia law.

The road ahead for Turkey will be extremely challenging. Since 2002, the ruling party has transformed the entire public administration into a party apparatus, maintaining control over the military, police, and judiciary. The leader of this party is a politician who has, in the past, openly declared that he would not even recognize the rulings of the Constitutional Court.

The likelihood of elections being used merely as a display window is very high. In other words, we are witnessing the AKP begin to prepare the conditions for an election that it is certain to win, starting with the detention of Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 19, 2025.

Concerns that elections may be completely abolished under a state of emergency are being discussed and voiced within society. However, what has happened over the past two weeks clearly shows that efforts are underway to create election conditions where victory is guaranteed. The events that have transpired since 2015 make this possibility highly plausible.

Turkey has never experienced such a sharp departure from democracy. The country's recent history is filled with military coups and coup attempts. In the past, the military intervened in politics as an outsider, infringing upon the democratic sphere. However, this time, the great rupture against democracy is emerging from within the institutional structure that is supposed to uphold democratic rules—the government and politics itself.

The CHP’s political strategy and its ability to channel society’s democratic and justice-driven energy in the right direction is of utmost importance. Corruption, ties to terrorism, and other issues—if there are plans that violate ethical principles and harm Turkey’s future, they must, of course, be punished. However, the same laws and justice must be applied to everyone equally.

Whether you see Ekrem İmamoğlu as a suitable candidate for the presidency or not, whether you like him or not, whether you support the CHP or not—these are not the issues at hand right now. The real issue is citizens’ rights, the equal application of the law to all, the liberation of the judiciary from government control, ensuring that elections are not just symbolic displays but conducted fairly and democratically, and finding ways to dismantle the party-state structure.

In short, the matter at hand is preventing the loss of fundamental personal rights and freedoms and ensuring that the institutions responsible for safeguarding these rights begin functioning again in line with principles of democracy and justice. Even if everything were to go smoothly, it must be acknowledged that initiating a positive transformation will still require several years. Social progress takes time; it requires patience.

We are discussing fundamental issues. We have regressed beyond 1923 and even the eras of military coups.