

The Reordering of Global Trade
The latest ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization ended not with compromise, but with drift. No agreement on e-commerce tariffs. No meaningful progress on institutional reform. What should have been a forum for coordination instead became a reflection of fragmentation. It was, in many ways, a fitting conclusion to a decade that has steadily eroded the foundations of the global trading system. A Decade of Disruption The unraveling unfolded through a sequence of s
Arda Tunca
Apr 126 min read


The Illusion of Power
" A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will ." Such language does not belong to deterrence or negotiation. It belongs to total destruction. Presidents, leaders, and states may have deep and serious conflicts with one another, but the idea of wiping out an entire civilization falls into a category that can only be described as massacre. This war is increasingly being interpreted as a crusade . When
Arda Tunca
Apr 83 min read


Renminbi, Reserve Currencies, and the Political Economy of Monetary Power
Recent reporting in the Financial Times highlights Chinese President Xi Jinping’s explicit call for the renminbi to attain global reserve currency status, framing this ambition within China’s broader push to reshape the international monetary order. Under what conditions can a fiat currency become a reserve currency in the first place? The answer to this question lies in the structural requirements identified by international monetary theory and historical experience. Res
Arda Tunca
Feb 34 min read


Strategic Uncertainty Is Now the Baseline of the Global Order
Strategic uncertainty has become the baseline condition under which global politics and economics operate. Power is more dispersed, trust more fragile and stability more conditional than at any time since the end of the Cold War. This landscape begins with the structure of power. The international system has not settled into a stable multipolar balance, but into a form of strategic multipolarity defined by fluid alignments. The US–China rivalry remains central, yet it no long
Arda Tunca
Dec 7, 20253 min read









